Stagflation? By José Martin Rodriguez with information from EL Economista and Espresso Machettino. There's something worse than negative economic growth or rising inflation. Having both. That's what's happening in Mexico at the start of 2026. Economic activity fell 0.9% in January, and prices rose 0.62% in the first half of March. Stagnation combines with inflation. That's what economists call stagflation. It's a central banker's worst nightmare. Not least because there's no easy solution. If measures are taken to boost growth, inflation is fueled. If actions are focused on combating inflation, economic growth is stifled. And when all of that comes together, economists call it stagflation. And the data from the last two months in our country are painting a picture of it. The numbers, as presented by Luis Miguel Gonzalez and El Economista, give us an idea that although we are not yet in this scenario, it won't be long before it arrives. Economic activity. This is the worst start to the year since the 2009 recession, as noted by Bloomberg Online, when the global financial crisis and the H1N1 influenza pandemic hit together. The first quarter is expected to close at minus 0.3%, according to Banamex estimates. Inflation, 0.62% in the first half of March alone, four times higher than the same period last year, 0.14%. In five fortnights of 2026, prices have already accumulated 1.5%. Which shows us that the numbers aren't very optimistic, but all is not lost, there are two forces applied to the variable. On one hand, there is the inflationary component driven by prices. Diesel and premium gasoline rose almost 10% due to the war in the Middle East. Fertilizers have accumulated a 20% increase and account for between 30% and 35% of farm costs. On the other hand, let's say what could revitalize the economy, the World Cup, which is just around the corner. According to BBVA Mexico, the tournament would contribute 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, with an estimated economic impact of$2.73 billion, according to Deloitte. Pure football economic muscle. The question is, what weighs more heavily in the outcome? Therein lies the answer: whether Mexico is entering stagflation or is simply experiencing a very bad quarter. Why does it matter? If you have a business, you're already experiencing it. Your inputs are going up due to the IEPS tax, fertilizers, and diesel, but your customer is spending less because the economy has contracted. If you save or invest, an accumulated inflation of 1.5% over five fortnights eats up the returns, so you have to put your money to work. The next Aniji measurements will be key to separating external noise from the damage that was already there. And we must keep an eye on Banxico, which is currently considering what to do about interest rates in Mexico. The worrying thing is that stagflation is like the common cold. By the time you confirm you have it, everyone else has already caught it. The problem is that we still don't know if it's a cold or just seasonal allergies.